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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.